Saturday, July 17, 2010

Brokerages, Institutional Investors,Retail Investors and Forex Scam

Perhaps consistent with these two opposing views is that, as with any type of trading, market timing is difficult to carry out on a consistent basis, particularly for the individual investor unschooled in technical analysis. Retail brokers are also generally unschooled in both the mind set and the tools needed to successfully time the market, and indeed most are actively discouraged by the brokerages themselves from moving their clients in and out of the market. However, as market makers, many of these same brokerages take the opposite approach with their large institutional clients, trading various financial instruments for these clients in an attempt to "predict future market price movements" and thereby make a profit for the institutions. This dichotomy in the treatment of institutional vs. retail clients can potentially be controversial for the brokerages. It may suggest for example that retail brokers and their clients are discouraged from market timing, not because it doesn't work, but because it would interfere with the brokerages' market maker trading for their institutional clients. In other words, retail clients are encouraged to buy and hold so as to maintain market liquidity for the institutional trading. If true, this would suggest a conflict of interest, in which the brokerages are willing to sacrifice potential returns for the smaller retail clients in order to benefit larger institutional clients.

The 2008 decline in the markets is instructive. While many retail brokers were instructed by their brokerages to tell their clients not to sell, but instead "look to the long term", the market makers at those same brokerages were busy selling to cash to avoid losses for the brokerages' large institutional clients. The result was that the retail clients were left with huge losses while the institutions fled to the safety of short term bonds and money market funds, thereby avoiding similar losses.

Curve fitting and over-optimization
A major stumbling block for many market timers is the phenomenon of curve fitting. This means that a given set of trading rules has been over-optimized to fit the particular dataset for which it has been back-tested. Unfortunately, if the trading rules are over-optimized they often fail to work on future data. Market timers attempt to avoid these difficulties in a number of ways. One is by looking for clusters of parameter values which work particularly well. Another is using out-of-sample data, which ostensibly allows the market timer to see how the system will work on unforeseen data. However, critics charge that once the strategy has been revised to reflect such data it is no longer "out-of-sample".

Independent review of market-timing services
Several independent organizations (e.g., Timer Digest and Hulbert Financial Digest) have tracked some market timers' performance for over thirty years. These organizations have found that purported market timers in many cases do no better than chance, or even worse. However, there are exceptions, with some market timers over the thirty year period having performances that substantially and reliably exceed those of the general stock market or the sectors in which that the market timers invest. Jim Simons' Renaissance Technologies Medallion Hedge Fund has consistently outperformed the market. The fund allegedly uses mathematical models developed by Elwyn Berlekamp.

Efficient market theory has also been criticized as an unscientific theory. That is, it assumes the null hypothesis is true (nothing can predict the market), which is the reverse of standard Popperian methodology.
A recent study suggested that the best predictor of a fund's consistent outperformance of the market was low expenses and low turnover, not pursuit of a value or contrarian strategy. However, other studies have concluded that some simple strategies will outperform the overall market. One market-timing strategy is referred to as Time Zone Arbitrage.

Scandal wrongly tainting legitimate market timing
A scandal erupted in the United States in 2007 where some mutual funds "secretly" allowed select investors to rapidly trade the portfolio despite statements banning the practice in the prospectus. The scandal did not involve market timing per se, and market timing is not itself illegal. The scandal involved permitting selected investors to make frequent and repeated trades during the day while permitting general investors to trade only at the close of business, which permitted the favored investors to take advantage of market-timing strategies. "A double standard that favors one investor at the expense of another is illegal and undermines the credibility of the industry." In this instance, the market timing frequently involved predictions of the performance of how international markets would respond to the day's trading in the US. This scandal also involved late trading.
Although the illegal activities of this scandal had nothing to do with legitimate market timing, some in the brokerage and mutual fund industries have nevertheless attempted to link the two. While the motives for doing this remain unclear, one view is that doing so is consistent with the industries' long held view that retail investors should avoid trading and instead buy and hold, despite the potential for market losses.

Evidence against market timing
Mutual fund flows are published by organizations such as Investment Company Institute and TrimTabs. These show that flows generally track the overall level of the market. For example, in the beginning of the 2000s, the largest inflows to stock mutual funds were in early 2000 while the largest outflows were in mid 2005. It is good to note that these mutual fund flows were near the start of a significant bear (downtrending) market and bull (uptrending) market respectively. A similar pattern is repeated near the end of the decade.

This mutual fund flow data seems to indicate that most investors (despite what they may say) actually follow a buy high, sell low strategy. Studies confirm that the general tendency of investors is to buy after a stock or mutual fund price has already increased. This creates a surge in the number of buyers which then drives the price even higher. However, eventually, the supply of buyers becomes exhausted, and the demand (supply and demand) for the stock declines and the stock or fund price also declines.

The famous Dalbar study found that the average investor's return in stocks is much less than the amount that would have been obtained by simply holding an index fund consisting of all stocks contained in the S&P 500 index.
A recent study suggests that corporations and investment banks cannot time the credit markets. They show that investment banks such as Goldman Sachs do as poorly as firms like Ford when it comes to timing the issuance of their bonds.
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) says that market-timing strategies can not work. It says that investors can't "beat the market"; interestingly, it says that investors can't do worse (on average) than the market either. EMH says that the investment return created by a strategy that is 50% of the time in cash and 50% of the time in stocks should be similar to a strategy that is 50% invested in stocks and 50% in cash at all times (plus variations for random error).
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Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries Limited (BSE: 500325‎, LSE: RIGD) is India's largest private sector conglomerate company by market value, with an annual turnover of US$ 44.6 billion and profit of US$ 3.6 billion for the fiscal year ending in March 2010 making it one of India's private sector companies, being ranked at 264th position in the Fortune Global 500 (2009) and at the 126th position in the Forbes Global 2000 list (2010).

Reliance was founded by the Indian industrialist Dhirubhai Ambani in 1966. Ambani has been a pioneer in introducing financial instruments like fully convertible debentures to the Indian stock markets. Ambani was one of the first entrepreneurs to draw retail investors to the stock markets. Critics allege that the rise of Reliance Industries to the top slot in terms of market capitalization is largely due to Dhirubhai's ability to manipulate the levers of a controlled economy to his advantage. Though the company's oil-related operations form the core of its business, it has diversified its operations in recent years. After severe differences between the founder's two sons, Mukesh Ambani and Anil Ambani, the group was divided between them in 2006. In September 2008, Reliance Industries was the only Indian firm featured in the Forbes's list of "world's 100 most respected companies

Stock
According to the company website "1 out of every 4 investors in India is a Reliance shareholder." . Reliance has more than 3 million shareholders, making it one of the world's most widely held stock. Reliance Industries Ltd, subsequent to its split in January 2006 has continued to grow. Reliance companies have been among the best performing in the Indian stock market.

Major Subsidiaries & Associates
Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) was a subsidiary of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and was created to exploit the emerging opportunities, creating value in the refining sector worldwide.Currently, RPL stands amalgamated with RIL.
Reliance Life Sciences is a research-driven, biotechnology-led, life sciences organization that participates in medical, plant and industrial biotechnology opportunities. Specifically, these relate to Biopharmaceuticals, Pharmaceuticals, Clinical Research Services, Regenerative Medicine, Molecular Medicine, Novel Therapeutics, Biofuels, Plant Biotechnology and Industrial Biotechnology.
Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Limited (RIIL) is engaged in the business of setting up / operating Industrial Infrastructure that also involves leasing and providing services connected with computer software and data processing.
Reliance Institute of Life Sciences (Rils), established by Dhirubhai Ambani Foundation, is an institution of higher education in various fields of life sciences and related technologies.

Reliance Logistics (P) Limited is a single window solutions provider for transportation, distribution, warehousing, logistics, and supply chain needs, supported by in house state of art telematics and telemetry solutions.
Reliance Clinical Research Services (RCRS), a contract research organization (CRO) and wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Life Sciences, has been set up to provide clinical research services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device companies.

Reliance Solar, The solar energy initiative of Reliance aims to bring solar energy systems and solutions primarily to remote and rural areas and bring about a transformation in the quality of life.
Relicord is the first and one of the most dependable stem-cell banking services of South East Asia offered by Mukesh Ambani controlled Reliance Industries.
Infotel Broadband is a broadband service provider, it is wholly owned by RIL for Rs 4,800 crore.

Forex scam
A forex (or foreign exchange) scam is any trading scheme used to defraud traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour" as of early 2008, according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times. "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal. The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud."
"In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists."
In August, 2008 the CFTC set up a special task force to deal with growing foreign exchange fraud.” In January 2010, the CFTC proposed new rules limiting leverage to 10 to 1, based on " a number of improper practices" in the retail foreign exchange market, "among them solicitation fraud, a lack of transparency in the pricing and execution of transactions, unresponsiveness to customer complaints, and the targeting of unsophisticated, elderly, low net worth and other vulnerable individuals."

The forex market is a zero-sum game, meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.
These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits, improperly managed "managed accounts", false advertising, Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds. CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done.

Not beating the market
The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.
Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbitrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of the treasure map.)

Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of gambler's ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.
The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.
Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange.

The use of high leverage
By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) seldom use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1.
A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.

Friday, July 16, 2010

Investment and Strategy Forex Market Trading

In finance, an investment strategy is a set of rules, behaviors or procedures, designed to guide an investor's selection of an investment portfolio. Usually the strategy will be designed around the investor's risk-return tradeoff: some investors will prefer to maximize expected returns by investing in risky assets, others will prefer to minimize risk, but most will select a strategy somewhere in between.
Passive strategies are often used to minimize transaction costs, and active strategies such as market timing are an attempt to maximize returns.
One of the better known investment strategies is buy and hold. Buy and hold is a long term investment strategy, based on the concept that in the long run equity markets give a good rate of return despite periods of volatility or decline. A purely passive variant of this strategy is indexing where an investor buys a small proportion of all the shares in a market index such as the S&P 500, or more likely, in a mutual fund called an index fund or an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
This viewpoint also holds that market timing, that one can enter the market on the lows and sell on the highs, does not work or does not work for small investors, so it is better to simply buy and hold. The smaller, retail investor more typically uses the buy and hold investment strategy in real estate investment where the holding period is typically the lifespan of their mortgage.

Trading strategy
In finance, a trading strategy (see also trading system) is a predefined set of rules for making trading decisions.
Traders, investment firms and fund managers use a trading strategy to help make wiser investment decisions and help eliminate the emotional aspect of trading. A trading strategy is governed by a set of rules that do not deviate. Emotional bias is eliminated because the systems operate within the parameters known by the trader. The parameters can be trusted based on historical analysis (backtesting) and real world market studies (forward testing), so that the trader can have confidence in the strategy and its operating characteristics.

Executing strategies
A trading strategy can be executed by a trader (manually) or automated (by computer). Manual trading requires a great deal of skill and discipline. It is tempting for the trader to deviate from the strategy, which usually reduces its performance.
An automated trading strategy wraps trading formulas into automated order and execution systems. Advanced computer modeling techniques, combined with electronic access to world market data and information, enable traders using a trading strategy to have a unique market vantage point. A trading strategy can automate all or part of your investment portfolio. Computer trading models can be adjusted for either conservative or aggressive trading styles.

Technical analysis
In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume
Technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. While technicians use various methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary.
Technicians especially search for archetypal patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top reversal patterns, study indicators such as moving averages, and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels, and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns.

Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine whether an asset is trending, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians also look for relationships between price, volume and, in the case of futures, open interest. Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in options (implied volatility) and put/call ratios with price. Other technicians include sentiment indicators, such as Put/Call ratios and Implied Volatility in their analysis.
Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that large gains from successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losing trades, producing positive returns in the long run through proper risk control and money management.
There are several schools of technical analysis. Adherents of different schools (for example, candlestick charting, Dow Theory, and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one school. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern a particular instrument reflects at a given time, and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Some technical analysts also employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation.
Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence prices in financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influences before investors are aware of them, hence the study of price action alone. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions.

Users of technical analysis are most often called technicians or market technicians. Some prefer the term technical market analyst or simply market analyst. An older term, chartist, is sometimes used, but as the discipline has expanded and modernized the use of the term chartist has become less popular.

Characteristics
Technical analysis employs models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns.
Technical analysis stands in contrast to the fundamental analysis approach to security and stock analysis. Technical analysis "ignores" the actual nature of the company, market, currency or commodity and is based solely on "the charts," that is to say price and volume information, whereas fundamental analysis does look at the actual facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. For example, any large brokerage, trading group, or financial institution will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.
Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals, and is very often used by active day traders, market makers, and pit traders. In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely dismissed by academics. In a recent review, Irwin and Park reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found it produces positive results, but noted that many of the positive results were rendered dubious by issues such as data snooping so that the evidence in support of technical analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience. Academics such as Eugene Fama say the evidence for technical analysis is sparse and is inconsistent with the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis. Users hold that even if technical analysis cannot predict the future, it helps to identify trading opportunities.
In the foreign exchange markets, its use may be more widespread than fundamental analysis. While some isolated studies have indicated that technical trading rules might lead to consistent returns in the period prior to 1987, most academic work has focused on the nature of the anomalous position of the foreign exchange market. It is speculated that this anomaly is due to central bank intervention. Recent research suggests that combining various trading signals into a Combined Signal Approach may be able to increase profitability and reduce dependence on any single rule.

Market action discounts everything
Based on the premise that all relevant information is already reflected by prices, pure technical analysts believe it is redundant to do fundamental analysis – they say news and news events do not significantly influence price, and cite supporting research such as the study by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers titled "What Moves Stock Prices?"
On most of the sizable return days [large market moves]...the information that the press cites as the cause of the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on adjacent days also fail to reveal any convincing accounts of why future profits or discount rates might have changed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted for these significant market moves is difficult to reconcile with the view that such shocks account for most of the variation in stock returns.

Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to futures and forex, it focuses on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, futures contract, or currency using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use; bottom up analysis and top down analysis. The term is used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives:
to conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution,
to make a projection on its business performance,
to evaluate its management and make internal business decisions,
to calculate its credit risk.

Two analytical models
When the objective of the analysis is to determine what stock to buy and at what price, there are two basic methodologies
Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in the short run but that the correct price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by trading the mispriced security and then waiting for the market to recognize its "mistake" and reprice the security.
Technical analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price. Trends are your friend and sentiment changes predate and predict trend changes. Investors' emotional responses to price movements lead to recognizable price chart patterns. Technical analysis does not care what the 'value' of a stock is. Their price predictions are only extrapolations from historical price patterns.
Investors can use any or all of these different but somewhat complementary methods for stock picking. For example many fundamental investors use technicals for deciding entry and exit points. Many technical investors use fundamentals to limit their universe of possible stock to 'good' companies.
The choice of stock analysis is determined by the investor's belief in the different paradigms for "how the stock market works". See the discussions at efficient-market hypothesis, random walk hypothesis, capital asset pricing model, Fed model Theory of Equity Valuation, Market-based valuation, and Behavioral finance.

Fundamental analysis includes

1. Economic analysis
2. Industry analysis
3. Company analysis

On the basis of these three analyses the intrinsic value of the shares are determined. This is considered as the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price it is recommended to buy the share . If it is equal to market price hold the share and if it is less than the market price sell the shares.

Buy and hold
Buy and hold is a long term investment strategy based on the view that in the long run financial markets give a good rate of return despite periods of volatility or decline. This viewpoint also holds that short term market timing, i.e. the concept that one can enter the market on the lows and sell on the highs, does not work for small, or unsophisticated, investors so it is better to simply buy and hold.
The antithesis of buy and hold is the concept of day trading in which money can be made in the short term if an individual tries to short on the peaks, and buy on the lows with greater money coming with greater volatility.

One of the strongest arguments for the buy and hold strategy is the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH): If every security is fairly valued at all times, then there is really no point to trade. Some take the buy and hold strategy to an extreme, advocating that you should never sell a security unless you need the money.
Others have advocated buy and hold on purely cost-based grounds, without resort to the EMH. Costs such as brokerage and bid/offer spread are incurred on all transactions, and buy-and-hold involves the fewest transactions for a given amount invested in the market, all other things being equal. Warren Buffett is an example of a buy and hold advocate who has rejected the EMH in his writings, and has built his fortune by investing in companies at times when they were undervalued. Some may argue that Warren Buffet is a long term market timer.

Liability-driven investment strategy
The liability-driven investment strategy (LDI) is an investment strategy of a company based on its risk tolerance, the company's ethics and the target return. The target return is usually linked to an index or combination of indices of the sector or any other like S&P 500. This is called the benchmark-driven investment strategy.
Especially in the long-term investments, like pension fund, the benchmark-driven is no longer appreciated. Now the buzzword is "liability-driven investment". The investment target of the fund is no longer linked to any external index, but to the liability of the fund, which is evaluated by the actuaries. In case of pension fund, it will be the present value of the benefits payable to the employees and pensioners, attached with a probability of those payments made.

LDI in Pension Funds
A pension fund following an LDI focuses on the pension-fund assets in the context of the promises made to employees and pensioners (known as liabilities). This is in contrast to an approach which focuses purely on the asset side of the pension fund balance sheet. Typical LDI strategies involve hedging, in whole or in part, the fund's exposure to changes in interest rates and inflation. These risks can eat into a pension scheme's ability to keep their promises to members. Historically, bonds were used as a partial hedge for these interest rate risks but the recent growth in LDI has focused on using swaps and other derivatives. These offer significant additional flexibility and capital efficiency compared to bonds.
LDI investment strategies have come to prominence in the UK as a result of changes in the regulatory and accounting framework. IFRS17 (International Financial Reporting Standards) requires that UK companies post the funding position of a pension fund on the corporate sponsor's balance sheet. In the US the introduction of FAS158 (Financial Accounting Standards Board) has created a similar requirement.

Market timing
Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market, rather than for a particular financial asset.

Moving average
Market timing often looks at various moving averages. Popular are the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Some people consider that if the market has gone above the 50- or 200-day average that should be considered "bullish". The market timers then predict that the trend will, more likely than not, continue in the future. Others say, "nobody knows," and that world economies and stock markets are of such complexity that market timing strategies are unlikely to be more profitable than buy-and-hold strategies.

Differing views on the viability of market timing
Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance because they do not believe in undervalued or overvalued markets. The efficient-market hypothesis claims that financial prices always exhibit random walk behavior and thus cannot be predicted with consistency.
Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it remains difficult, if not impossible, to pre-determine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance can often become much cheaper afterwards before either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.
Proponents of market timing counter that market timing is just another name for trading. They argue that "attempting to predict future market price movements" is what all traders do, regardless of whether they trade individual stocks or collections of stocks, aka, mutual funds. Thus if market timing is not a viable investment strategy, the proponents say, then neither is any of the trading on the various stock exchanges. Those who disagree with this view usually advocate a buy-and-hold strategy with periodic "rebalancing". But what is this rebalancing if not a point-in-time decision to react to the movements in the market?

Monday, July 12, 2010

STOCK PRICE APPRAISAL INSITUTION

Stock Price Appraisal Institution or also known as alien "Bond Pricing Agency" is an independent institution for its role in providing a fair price benchmark for bonds in order to facilitate investors in ascertaining the value of their investment.

This institution must be independent, in the sense that these institutions are not governed by a particular party as a holder of control where the formation of this institution in order to encourage the creation of mechanisms of price formation and liquidity of securities markets and sukuk and other securities, objectively, independent, credible and accountable so it can be used as a reference by investors in securities transactions and the determination to overcome adversity market price (mark to market) on the bonds illiquid / not actively traded.

Diluyar bond transactions conducted many exchanges (over the counter) so that there is no official price is published, so it is necessary for an independent and credible institution that has the function of assessing the price of debt securities), sukuk and other securities.

In order to meet the Government's commitment to improve bond market liquidity and stability as contained in Presidential Instruction No. 6 Year 2007 concerning "accelerated policy of real sector development and empowerment of micro, small and medium enterprises, then on Wednesday, September 19, 2007, Capital Market Supervisory Agency (Bapepam) issued a new rule, namely Rule Number VC3 on Stock Price Valuation Agency, Decision of the Chairman of Bapepam and LK Number: Kep-329/BL/2007 September 19, 2007.

As for the points requirements prescribed in the Regulations referred to among others the following:

Procedures for Establishment of Securities Price Appraisal Institute.

Stock Price Appraisal Institute (BPA) in conducting its activities required to conduct fair market pricing of debt and sukuk are objective, independent, credible and accountable.

BPA paid up capital of at least Rp 30,000,000,000.00 (thirty billion rupiah).

BPA stock ownership to any legal entity in the financial sector at most 10% and for other legal entities in the financial sector is limited at most 20%, except for share ownership BPA by Self Regulatory Organizations (Self-regulated Organization) that together can have a 50% .

Members of the board of directors and commissioners must meet such requirements in accordance with the duties and functions, among others, each has a character of knowledge in the field of debt and Sukuk securities and other securities.

BPA shall include:
have a business plan and strategy from the perspective of reliable domestic and regional levels;

planning to continue to improve market transparency, promotion, education and debt securities markets, sukuk and / or other securities as a whole;

reasonably determine the amount of service fee pricing fair market [[effect (finance) | securities of Debt and Sukuk and other additional services provided as well as develop fee structures that are clear and consistent and must disclose to the customer;

experts, among others, have experienced in trading debt securities, sukuk and other securities or in fields related to the assessment of the price of debt securities, sukuk, and / or other securities; and

have at least the pricing functions, information technology, internal monitoring and complaints, and research and development.

BPA is prohibited to give recommendations to other parties to buy or sell securities.

BPA shall reside and execute operations in Indonesia

Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk is the risk that arise if a party can not pay their obligations due in cash. Although the party has property worth enough to pay off their obligations, but when those assets could not be converted into cash immediately, then the party is said to be illiquid.

This could happen if the debtor can not sell his property in the absence of other parties interested in the market to buy it. This differs from the drastic decline in asset prices, because in case of falling prices, the market believes that the assets are worthless. The absence of interested parties to exchange (buy) assets is likely only due to the difficulty to reconcile the two sides. Hence, liquidity risk is usually more likely occur in the newly emerging markets or small-volume.

Liquidity risk is a financial risk due to the uncertainty of liquidity. An institution can reduce its liquidity if its credit ratings fell, suffered an unexpected cash expenditures, or other events that cause the other party to avoid the transaction or provide loans to these institutions. A company can be exposed to liquidity risk if markets followed decreasing liquidity.

Risk Management
Risk management is a structured approach / methodology in managing uncertainty related to the threat; a series of human activities including: risk assessment, developing strategies to manage and mitigate risk by using empowerment / resource management. Strategies that can be drawn between the other is to transfer risk to another party, avoiding risk, reducing the risk of negative effects, and accommodate some or all of the consequences of certain risks. Traditional risk management focuses on risks that arise by physical or legal causes (such as natural disasters or fires, deaths, and lawsuits. Management of financial risks, on the other hand, focused on the risks can be managed using financial instruments.

The objectives of the implementation of risk management is to reduce the risk of different related fields that have been chosen at a level acceptable by society. This may include various types of threats caused by environmental, technological, human, organizational and political. On the other hand the implementation of risk management involves all means available to humans, particularly, for risk management entity (human, staff, and organization).

In the development risks discussed in the risk management can be classified into

Operational Risk
Hazard Risk
Financial Risk
Strategic Risk

This raises the idea to apply the implementation of the Integrated Corporate Risk Management (Enterprise Risk Management).

Risk management starts from the process of risk identification, risk assessment, mitigation, monitoring and evaluation.
Understanding Risk
Risks associated with this uncertainty occurs because of lack or unavailability of adequate information about what will happen.

Something that is uncertain (Uncertain) can cause beneficial or disadvantage by Wideman, uncertainty raises the possibility of benefit is known as opportunity (Opportunity, whereas uncertainty generate adverse known risk (Risk).

In general, risk can be defined as a situation faced by a person or company where there is the possibility of harm. What if the possibility of facing can give a huge advantage, while if they lose just a little? For example buy loterei. If you are lucky it will get a huge reward but if not lucky money used to buy relatively smaillys.what is loterei is also classified as Risk? the answer is that it is also considered a risk. During a loss even though no matter how small it is considered a risk.

Risk category
Risks can be categorized into two forms:

1. speculative risk, and
2. pure risk.

Speculative Risk
Speculative risk is a condition that dihadai company that can provide benefits and can also provide for possible losses.

Speculative risk is sometimes also known by the term business risk (business risk). Someone somewhere who invest funds face two possibilities. The first possibility of profitable investment or investment even harmful. Faced by such a risk is speculative. Speculative risk is a situation faced that can provide benefits and can also result in losses.

Pure risk
Pure risk (pure risk) is something can only cause harm or not happened and probably not profitable. One example is a fire, if the company menderiat fire, then the company will suffer losses. Another possibility is not there is a fire. Thus fire only cause harm, not cause profits, unless there is deliberate to burn with certain intentions. Pure risk is something that can only cause harm or not happened and probably not profitable. One way is to avoid pure risk insurance. Thus the amount of losses can be minimized. that's why sometimes known as pure risk term that can be insured risks (insurable risk).

The main difference between pure-risk speculative risk is the possibility of profit exists or not, for there is still the possibility of speculative risks, while profit for the risk can not be pure profit possibility.

Credit Risk
Credit risk or in a foreign language is called Credit risk is a risk of loss due to disability (default) from the borrower for its debt payment obligations both debt principal or interest or both.

Faced by lenders to consumers
Most lenders use a way of assessing their creditworthiness in order to make each customer risk rating and then apply to their business strategy. With products such as unsecured personal loans or mortgages, lenders will charge higher interest rates on high-risk customers and vice versa. With revolving products such as credit cards and overdrafts, risk is controlled through careful setting of credit limits. Some products require security, usually in the form of property.

Faced by lenders to business
Lenders will offer a cost / benefit of a loan on the basis of risk and the interest charged, but interest rates are not the only method of compensation for risk. Additional protection in the form of restrictions as stipulated in the loan agreement will enable the monitoring by the lender (creditor) of the borrower (debtor) is for example in the form:

Restrictions on the debtor for actions that could affect the financial borrowers such as buying back shares, paying dividends, or borrowing further.

Authority to conduct supervision over the debt by requiring an audit and monthly financial reports.

The right to creditors to ask for immediate repayment of the debt that gave the event a special event or if the ratio financing such as debt / equity decreases.

A recent innovation in order to protect creditors and bondholders against the risk of default are in the form of credit derivatives known as credit default swaps. These financial contracts allow companies to buy a protection (protection) against default risk from third party, the seller of protection. Seller of this protection are periodically obtain compensation as a form of compensation for the risk taken by him that is in the form of an agreement to purchase these bills the event of default.

Risks faced by business
Companies face the "credit risk" in terms of such companies do not receive the "advance payments" in cash for products or services it sells .. With the delivery of goods or services in front and collect payment later, the company took a risk during the period of delivery of goods or services with the time of payment.
Some companies have d3epartemen credit risk which is responsible for assessing the financial health of the consumers to decide further credit or not. In this case can also use third party service that is peruisahaan that provides credit rating services in the field by providing credit ratings such as Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch Ratings, and others who provide paid information.

This credit risk is not seriously managed by small companies that have only one or two customers only, so the company is very vulnerable to the problem of default payment or late payment by customers.

Risks faced by individual
Consumers may see the credit risk in a direct form such as a depositor in the bank or the debtor. They may also face credit risk when doing business transactions in a way delivery of advances to such counterparty to purchase a home or rental house. Employees of a company are also very dependent on the ability of companies to have salary payments also include the credit risk in condition as an employee.

In some cases, the government realized that the ability of these individuals to evaluate the credit risk is very limited and this risk may reduce economic efficiency so that the government conduct a variety of mechanisms and legal measures to protect consumers against this risk. Bank deposits in some countries are secured by insurance (to limits specified value) for deposits of individuals / individuals, which effectively will reduce their credit risk to banks and increase their confidence to use banking services.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

STOCK EXCHANGE

Exchange foreign currency (foreign exchange market, forex assay) is a type of forex trading or currency trading transactions of a country against another country's currency (the currency pair / pair), which involve major money markets in the world market during the 24 hours sustainably.

Rotating movement of the foreign exchange market from New Zealand and Australian markets that took place at 05:00 to 14:00 am, continues to Asian markets, namely Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong which took place at 07:00 to 16:00 am, to European markets namely Germany and the UK which took place at 13:00 -22.00 pm, to the United States market that took place at 20:30 to 10:30 hrs. In its historical development, the central bank owned by the countries with reserves of foreign currency that even the biggest can be defeated by the forces of a free foreign exchange market.

According to the survey BIS (Bank for International Settlements, the world's central banks), who performed at the end of 2004, the foreign exchange market transaction value reached more than USD $ 1.4 trillion per day.

Given the level of liquidity and accelerating the movement of these high prices, foreign exchange has also become the most popular alternative because of the ROI (return on investment or return on investment) and profit will be obtained can exceed the average trade in general. As a result of rapid movement, the foreign exchange market also has a high risk.

Market capitalization and liquidity
Foreign exchange market is a unique market because:

trade volume

a very large market liquidity

the number and variety of traders in the foreign exchange market

geographical distribution

trading period of 24 hours a day (except weekends)

variety of factors that affect currency exchange rates


According to BIS, the average foreign exchange market turnover per day of the world's estimated worth $ 3.21 trillion, which consists of:

$ 1,005 billion in spot transactions

$ 362 billion in market and transfer contract (forward contract)

$ 1,714 billion in swap market

$ 129 billion estimated as the difference in reporting

As an extra rotation of the "traditional" is, amounted to $ 2.1 trillion traded in the derivatives market.

Foreign exchange forward contracts which were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange grew rapidly in recent years but the volume is still only amounted to 7% of the total trade volume of foreign exchange market

According to data from International Financial Services London (IFSL), the overall daily turnover of traditional foreign exchange market average to a total value of U.S. dollar 2.7 billiun in April 2006. Such estimates are based on mid-year data from the Foreign Exchange Committee (Foreign Exchange Committee) in London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore

On direct foreign exchange trading (OTC, brokers and traders to negotiate directly without going through the stock exchange or clearing. Geographically the largest trading center in London, England, where according to data IFSL estimated to have increased its contribution from 31.3% in April 2004 became 32.4% in April 2006

Characteristics of foreign exchange trading
There is no uniformity in the foreign exchange market. With the existence of transactions outside the stock exchange trading (over the counter) as the traditional market of foreign exchange trading, foreign exchange market very much interrelated with each other, where different currencies are traded, so that indirectly means that "no single exchange rate currency dollars but the exchange rates vary depending on what bank or market maker is trading. However, in practice the difference is often very thin.

The main trading centers are in London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore, but banks around the world to its participants. Foreign exchange trading happens all day long. If the Asian markets ended the European market was opened and at the European markets ended the American market began and returned to Asian markets, except on weekends.

Very little or even no "insider trading" or information "inside" (insider trading) that occurred in the foreign exchange market. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of monetary flows caused by changes in the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, mergers and acquisitions and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, so that more people can access the news at the same time. But the big banks have a more important value is that they can see the flow of movement "order" currency from customers.

The currency traded with each other and every currency pair is a separate product such as EUR / USD, USD / JPY, GBP / USD and others. Factor in one currency such as USD will affect the market price at USD / JPY and GBP / USD, this is a correlation between the USD / JPY and GBP / USD.

On the spot market, according to research conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the most heavily traded products are

EUR / USD - 28%

USD / JPY - 18%

GBP / USD (Also Called sterling or cable) - 14%

and currency to U.S. dollars was involved in 89% of transactions conducted, followed by the Euro currency (37%), yen (20%) and Pound Sterling (17%).

Although trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999 1999, U.S. dollar still dominates the foreign exchange market. For example in trade between Euro and non-European currencies (XXX), usually always involves two types of trade that is EUR / USD and USD / XXX, exceptions to the trade only the EUR / JPY which is the currency pairs that regularly traded in the spot market between banks.

Process transactions
In exchange forex (foreign exchange), this person can buy or sell currencies traded. Objectively is to gain profit or advantage of position you are doing transactions. In Stock Lot forex technical term and Pip. 1 Lot value is $ 1,000 and a pip value is $ 10. While the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market is different from that we know the dollar value of the banks. Value of the dollar in the forex market is very varied, 6000/8000 and 10,000 rupiah.

Two-way transactions
Transactions in foreign currencies can be done by two-way in taking advantage. Someone can buy a first (open-buy), then closed with a sell (sell) or otherwise, to sell first and then covered with a purchase.

Foreign exchange market players
Unlike the stock exchanges where the members have equal access to stock prices, foreign exchange market is divided on several levels of access.

At the highest level of access is the interbank money market (interbank money market), which consists of investment banking firms besar.Pada interbank money market, the difference between the offering price / selling price (ask) and price request / purchase price (bid) is usually very thin, very even does not exist, and these prices only apply to their own ranks that are not known to the foreign players outside their group.

At the access level below, the range difference between the selling and buying price to be large depending on the volume of transactions.

If a trader can guarantee the implementation of foreign exchange transactions in large numbers so they can request that the excess value of the sale and purchase reduced-called better spreads (the difference between the selling price and thinner buy).

Level access to foreign exchange markets is largely determined by the size of currency transactions to be performed.

Banks are ranked on mastering "the interbank money market (interbank money market) until 53% of the total transaction value. And after the ratings of banks are the next rank is a small investment banks and multinational companies large (which requires hedge the risk of the transaction and pays its employees in different countries), large hedge funds, as well as retail merchants be a determinant of foreign exchange market.

According to Galati and Melvin, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and institutional investors is a player who has a major role in the financial markets in general and particularly the foreign exchange market since the decade of 2000s.

Bank
Interbank money market (interbank money market) to meet the needs of the majority of the velocity of money in the corporate world and the needs of transaction speculators every day that could reach the value of trillions of dollars. Some transactions were executed for and on behalf of its clients, but most are for the interests of bank owners or to the interests of the bank itself.

Until recently, foreign exchange brokers are the principal exchange turnover in large quantities, facilitating interbank money market trading and bring together sellers and buyers to "wages" (fee) is small. But nowadays a lot of the foreign exchange business which is transferred to a more efficient electronic systems such as EBS (now owned by ICAP), Reuters Dealing 3000 Matching (D2), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg and Tradebook (R)

World business
One role of this foreign exchange market is the needs of the company's activities in paying the price of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies. Foreign currency needs of an enterprise is often only a little value compared with the needs of banks and speculators and foreign exchange trading is done is often only a very small impact on the value of the currency exchange market. Nevertheless foreign trade flows of these companies in the long term is an important factor for the direction of the exchange rate of a currency. Transaction several multinational companies can bring unexpected consequences when they close a position (the position of selling or buying) a very large one which transaction is not widely known by market players.


Central bank
A country's central bank holds a very important role in the foreign exchange market. The central bank is always trying to control money supply, inflation, and interest or sometimes even they have a target both official and unofficial exchange rates against his country. Often the central bank uses foreign currency reserves to stabilize the market.

With market expectations or the issue of intervention by the central bank has enough merely to stabilize the local currency, but aggressive intervention carried out several times in each year at a country currency exchange rates fluctuate.

Various funding sources exist in the foreign exchange market when combined can easily "played" the central bank (interest or sell currencies in huge amounts of time so that the central bank can no longer melakukan intervention) where these scenarios appear in the year 1992-1993 which European exchange rate mechanism (European Exchange Rate Mechanism - ERM) experienced a fall and several times a fall of currency values in Southeast Asia.

Investment management firm
Investment management companies (which usually is a lot of account managers on behalf of clients such as pension funds and foundations donated funds) that transact in foreign exchange markets for foreign currency needs in order to conduct transactions in foreign purchases of shares. Foreign exchange transactions for them is not a primary investment objective so that the transaction does not by speculative purposes or with the aim of profit maximization.

Hedge funds
Hedge funds (an investment holding company which operates speculative transactions for profit) such as George Soros whose reputation rose caused by currency speculation activities done aggressively since 1990. He manages the fund trillions of U.S. dollars and still be able to borrow more trillions of U.S. dollars and therefore are able to make interventions that are performed by the central bank of a country to maintain its currency exchange rate to be helpless if the economic fundamentals depends on the "mercy" hedge funds.

Foreign exchange brokers
Foreign exchange broker is a company established specifically to conduct brokerage services for customers with interests in the field of financial markets to obtain compensation for their services. According to CNN, a foreign exchange broker has a transaction volume of between 25 to 50 trillion U.S. dollars per day or about 2% of the total value of the foreign exchange market transactions as reported by the site and Futures Trading Commission (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission - CFTC) that novice investors easily may become targets of fraud in the foreign exchange trading.

Friday, July 9, 2010

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MARKET

Technical analysis, or better known as technical analysis is an analysis technique known in the financial world that is used to predict the trend of stock prices by studying past market data, primarily price and volume movements at first only consider the technical analysis of price movements or market respective instruments, with the assumption that prices reflect all relevant factors before an investor realized through a variety of other ways. Technical analysis can use different models and the basis for example, for the movement of prices used methods such as Relative Strength Index, Index moving average, regression, correlation between market and intra-market, cycle or with the classical way of analyzing chart patterns.

Technical analysis is widely known among the traders of shares (or known as "traders") and professionals in finance, but in the academic world regarded as pseudoscience or "voodoo finance;" it receives little or no direct support from academic sources and is Considered akin to "astrology.

Academics like Eugene Fama said that the proof of this technical analysis is very thin and inconsistent, which is "a shortage" of the technique is generally accepted that the efficient market hypothesis economist named Burton Malkiel argues that "Technical analysis is something that is haraam (anathema) in the academic world" and then he said that "in the form it is the efficient market hypothesis is weak then engka will not be able to predict future stock prices based on past prices."

In the foreign exchange market, technical analysis is used more and more practitioners than the use of fundamental analysis. Several internal studies indicate that technical trading rules can generate consistent returns in the period to 1987, most academic research focuses on the nature of the position of the currency market anomaly is speculated that this anomaly occurs as a result of central bank intervention.

General Explanation
Technical analyst (or analyst) sought to identify patrons and price trends in financial markets and seeks to exploit these patrons. In the use of various methods or techniques they give priority to the study of price charts. The analyst attempts to find a prototype of such patron patron reversal of the already very well known with the English term head and Shoulders (shaped like a patron's head and shoulders), and also learn a variety of patrons such as price, volume, and the average movement of prices. Some technical analysts also use psychological indicator of market sentiment investors.

Technical analysts also often use different indicators, which are typically mathematical transformations of the price or volume. This indicator is used as a tool for determining whether an asset is in a trend and direction of asset prices in these tern. The analysts also study the correlation between price, volume and margin in futures trading. Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD. Another study also used correlation between changes in option and an option to buy and sell along with the price.

Essentially, technical analysis to explore two areas of investment yautu analysis of market psychology and the analysis of supply and demand. Analysts trying to forecast price movements in order to gain success in commerce and minimize the risk of loss and to produce positive returns in the long run through proper risk management and financial management

Many ways of learning technical analysis. Adherents of how the learning of different techniques (eg, candlestick chart or more widely known by the term candlestick chart, the Dow Theory, and Elliott wave theory techniques often ignore other approaches, but many combine several elements of learning. The analysts usually decide to learning method which is appropriate based on experience of what is reflected from an instrument at a particular time and what the meaning of the patrons that formed in this period.

Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that some analysts believed could influence prices in financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the economic influence before investors are aware. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both in conducting the analysis.

History
The oldest examples of technical analysis is developed by Homma Munehisa in the early 18th century using the technique of candlestick chart (candlestick chart), which is the main analytical tool at this time

Dow Theory is based on the collected writings of which was written by Charles Dow who was the founder and editor of Dow Jones, which became a source of inspiration from the development of modern technical analysis in the early 19th century. There were also Ralph Nelson Elliott and William Delbert Gann who developed their technique also in the early 20th century. There are many other technical tools and theories that have been developed in recent decades, along with the growing use of computers as a tool.

Criticism
Critics of technical analysis benyak posed by well-known fundamental analysts such as Peter Lynch, who commented that "Graphics are very good for predicting the past". Warren Buffett said that "I realized that technical analysis is useless when I turn the graph so that the under and I did not find anything different answers and, if past history is reflected on it all that will be the richest people are the librarians

Most academic studies stated that technical analysis has little predictive power, but some studies have stated that technical analysis can only generate a profit. Cheol-Ho Park and Scott H. Irwin studied the modern study of profitability in 1995 and claimed that 56 of them found positive, 20 produced negative results and 19 indicated yield mixed results.

An influential study conducted by Brock et al. in 1992 that showed support for technical trading techniques in a way that has been tested for the surveillance data and other problems in the year 1999

After that, a comparative study conducted by an economist named Gerwin Griffioen Amsterdam concluded that: for the American market, Japan and several Western European markets indicate that the forecast does not show favorable results after implementing little transaction costs.

Tepatguna market hypothesis
Tepatguna market hypothesis or the foreign term is known as the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a contradiction to the doctrine of "technical analysis" of the principle that past prices can not be used to predict future prices. or in other words to say that technical analysis is not effective. Eugene Fama economist, published an article that was published in the Journal of Finance in 1970, saying that "In a short period, the evidence supporting the model tepatguna market will expand and become something unique in the world economy and reverse the evidence opposed to diminishing returns. Proponents of the EMH states that "if a price can quickly describe all relevant information, then there is no method (including technical analysis) could be against the market.

Experts say that EMH ignores how markets work in which many investors rely on profits or performance expectations in the past. Because the future price of a stock can be influenced strongly by the expectation / expectations of investors, experts hope the states that follow past prices can influence prices in the future.

Hypothesis irregular step
Hypothesis irregular steps or in the foreign terms better known as the Random Walk Hypothesis, which is another form of tepatguna market hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that market participants fully use all the information on price movements in the past (but no need to use other public information).

Technical experts state that the EMH theory and the theory of irregular steps, both override the realities that occur in markets where market participants act irrationally when they could have become greedy, excessive fear of risk, and others. and price movements that occur when the current is dependent on previous price movements

Technical analysis indicators
Some technical tools that are widely known to use include:
Average true range - the daily trading price range

Coppock - Edwin Coppock Indicator Coppock developed for one purpose is to recognize the beginning of a trend increase in the market (bull market)

Dead cat bounce - This describes the recovery from temporary pricing or market share amid a prolonged decline or bear market. That is, rebound experienced by the market or a stock after the price crash, really only temporary because the stock market or will continue to fall.

OH Elliott Wave and the golden ratio (golden ratio) to calculate price movements

Hikkake patron - the patron to identify the reversal and continuation of movement

Momentum - the value of price changes

Graph points and figures - based on price charts to the exclusion of time

Rank CPV - patron to identify reversals by using the volume and price indicators as the indicator.


Indicators are used in a way combine with price charts:

Resistant - an area where there was an increase in sales

Support - rea where an increase in purchases

Breakout - when prices pass through and hold above the support or resistance area

Trend line - the curve of support or resistance line

Canal - a pair of parallel trend line

The average movement - from a price

Bollinger bands - a range of price volatility

Pivot point - a calculation using the average value of the lowest, the highest closing price



Indicator price which is usually placed under price charts
Akumulasi/distribusi- index based on the closing price of a particular time range

Commodity Channel Index - is the indicator used to measure the average price of the statistics. High scores indicate that the price is abnormally higher than the average price

MACD - konverjensi / diverjensi moving average

Parabolic SAR

Relative Strength Index - oscillator showing price strength

Rahul Mohindar Oscillator - an indicator for identifying trends

Stochastic oscillator

Trix - oscillator showing the curves of the three moving average which was developed by Jack Hutson at 1980s



Volume-based indicators:
Money flows - the number of shares traded when the price moves up

On-balance volume - the momentum to buy or sell shares

Graph PAC - two-dimensional method to graph the volume based on the ratings

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Business Communications

Business communication is the exchange of ideas, pendapt, information, instructions having a specific purpose, which is presented in person or imperonal through symbols - symbols or signals.

In business communication there are six basic elements, namely:

• Having a goal, means of business communication hrus emilik predetermined goals aligned with organizational goals
• Exchange, in this case involves at least two people or communicators and communicants lbih ie
• The ideas, opinions, information, instruction is the content of messages that shape dar vary depending on the purpose, situation, and condition
• Using personal channels or impersnal which may be face to face, receipts meialui certain media or media that reaches millions of people simultaneously.
• receipts or sinyl symbol which is a tool or method that can be understood or understood by the recipient to convey esan.
• Pncapaian goals of the organization: one of the characteristics that distinguish the organization or the formal institutions of information is that there is a predetermined destination management Leh.

Export
Export is the process of transporting goods or commodities from one country to another.

This process is often used by companies with small to medium-scale businesses as the main strategy to compete at international level. Export strategy is used for lower risk, lower capital and easier when compared with other strategies. Other strategies such as franchising and acquisitions.

Type
Direct Export


Direct export is the way mejual goods or services through intermediaries or exporters are located in another state or country of export destinations. Sales made through distributors and sales representatives the company. Profits, production is concentrated in the country of origin and control of the distribution better. The weakness, higher transportation costs for products in large scale and the existence of trade barriers and protectionism.

Indirect Exports
Indirect export is a technique whereby goods are sold through intermediaries or exporters country of origin are then sold by intermediaries. By using this way, the exporter has the opportunity to .. Through, export management companies (export management comapanies) and exporting firms (export trading companies). Those advantages, production resources are concentrated and need not handle export directly. Weakness, lack of control over distribution and knowledge of operating in other countries kurang.Umumnya, service industry uses direct export manufacturing industry, while using both.

Stages
In the export plan, need to do a variety of preparations, the following four step preparation:

1. Identification of potential market
2. Adjustments between the market needs with the ability, SWOT analysis
3. Conducting meetings with exporters, agents, etc.
4. Resource allocation

Indonesia's export commodities
Ten major export commodities of Indonesia is of Textiles and Textile Products (TPT), forest products, electronics, rubber and rubber products, palm oil and palm products, automotive, footwear, shrimp, cocoa and coffee. However, increasingly competitive international market so that the ten main Indonesian export commodities diversified. Other commodities, namely processed food, jewelry, fish and fish products, handicrafts and spices, leather and leather products, medical equipment, essential oils, medicinal plants and office equipment.

Common Errors
There are some common error made by new companies that do export, namely:

1. Did not do a complete investigation before export.
2. No prior consultation.

Export terms
The following are terms frequently used export:

Airway bill
A contract issued by an absolute air transport companies.

Bill of landing (B / L)
Receipt of goods loaded on board and is evidence of ownership of the goods and the transport of goods by sea treaty.

Invoice
Invoice or bill that contains the price and quantity of goods and the total price.

C & F (Cost and Freight)
The entire production cost and pengapalannya included in the price of goods.

Clearence
1. right the ship to leave port.
2. Permit the vessel departed from the port.
3. Permit issued goods from customs.

Consignee
Name and address of the consignee or purchaser.

F. O. B (free on the boat)
A seller's liability limited only to the sender port

Packing list
Invoice or bill that contains the number and weight of goods (net weight and gross weight)

Comodity
Goods that are the result of agriculture, but today is called the product.

Phytosanitary certificate
A letter issued by the animal and plant quarantine agency, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Indonesia. The process to get it through a series of procedures and laboratory tests, in order to prevent the spread of disease between countries or between islands in Indonesia (letter of inter-island quarantine)

Weight
Gross weight of an item concerning the contents and packaging.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

BUSINESS EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

Institute of Business and Informatics
IBII in the first place stands the name of a foundation, the Institut Bisnis Indonesia, which runs educational institutions in the field of business. The institution was founded in 1987 was organized educational program with a degree equivalent to S1 BBA (Bachelor of Business Administration). The founders of the foundation who is also the organizer of this education, Kwik Kian Gie and business practitioners who excel in their respective fields, namely Kaharudin Ongko and Djoenaedi Joesoef, not only reflects but also convince the public that the nitty gritty of business is the main focus of education in IBII.

In 1993 IBII status changed to School of Economics (STIE). STIE IBII S1 level education (degree programs), namely Studies Program and Program Management Accounting Studies. In exceptional concentrations of Management Studies Program: Financial Management and Marketing Management. At concentrations of Accounting Studies Program: Management Accounting, Auditing Accounting (Auditing), Taxation and Accounting. Starting this year also STIE IBII S2 level education (master program) ie Master of Management with a concentration in Financial Management and open the Marketing Management.

Starting in 2004 STIE IBII complement its services with education level S3 (doctoral programs), namely Management Science Doctoral Program (PDIM) with concentrations: Financial Management, Marketing Management, Strategic Management and Management Accounting.

In line with the demands of the times, in 2005 STIE IBII transformed into the Institute of Business and Information Technology of Indonesia (IBII) by adding four new courses namely S1: Information Systems (IS), Information Technology (IT), Communication Studies (IlKom), and Science in Business Administration (IAB). In addition, Program Management Studies IBII also opened a new concentration is: Entrepreneurial Management. In addition to adding four new courses and add a concentration in Management for the study program S1, in that year opened IBII S2 level education for Master of Accounting with a concentration: Financial Services Internal, External and Financial Services.

Seriousness in managing the quality of education has produced results. This can be seen in educational programs S2, IBII achieved accreditation status of "Excellent" for the Master of Management Studies program. In addition, the seriousness in implementing the quality management system has been proven by the success achieved IBII quality management system certificate ISO 9001:2000 international standard.
Academic Degree Program
Accounting
IBII Accounting Studies Program is one of the first studies programs established by IBII. Accounting Study Program has been established starting in 1992, meaning that we already have nearly 20 years of experience in educating and spawned accounting scholars have mostly been engaged in the business world arena.

Profile was formed by scholars who want IBII Accounting Study Program is an undergraduate accounting knowledge, character and faith. We believe the balance of three elements, will be able to form IBII accounting graduates become competent professionals in analytical and operational, but also has a work ethic and high professionalism.

To achieve this, the Accounting Studies Program IBII always strive to improve themselves to be able to give potions curriculum that can respond to market demands and business. We always follow the changes in the world of business and accounting, benchmarking to various colleges in and outside the country, inviting alumni and practitioners, to be able to capture the dynamics of accounting and apply it to happen in a good sequence of courses and quality in order to provide science supplies more than adequate for accounting graduates IBII to be plunged into the world of work.

Recognizing that information technology development growing rapidly, which can not be separated by areas of accounting, Accounting Study Program IBII-courses also integrate information technology-based subjects such as Computer Accounting, Accounting Information Systems, System Design Analysis and EDP Auditing.

Various seminars explore the latest accounting issues are also often organized by the Accounting Studies Program to increase the enrichment of knowledge of contemporary accounting student will progress. We are also actively brings guest speakers from various reputable accounting firm and the industry to provide practical sense for the students.

To shape the character of graduates and increase their faith, IBII Accounting Study Program also adopted a participatory learning patterns, and transparency in management principles. Establishment of graduates starting their characters sit on the bench as a freshman class. IBII accounting students are encouraged to actively participate in class, they were trained to learn independently and dare to express opinions through various activities group discussions and presentations. Relationship with the professor and all IBII management based on principles of transparency and also of cooperation. The students in the corridor that has been determined, do feedback to the lecturer, was allowed to complain of values and can conduct consultations with all IBII management of academic issues.

At V semester students will perform Work Internship. Work Internship is required for all students and is intended to allow students to gain direct work experience while still in college. The hope is that they can gain more practical knowledge dimensions and can also prepare themselves better before they actually dive into the world of work.

All the hard work during the Accounting Studies Program has produced results which seem sweet. In the year 2008 IBII Accounting team has successfully obtained one and the winner gets the trophy from the Minister of Finance in the National Accounting Challenge, beating all the universities both private and the country competing in the competition. In the years 2008 and 2009 was also IBII Accounting Studies Program is proud to have been chosen in order to facilitate a few large international firms such as KPMG and PriceWaterhouseCoopers in conducting campus recruitment. This is a huge industry recognition in the ability of Accounting Studies Program IBII in creating the accounting personnel qualified and ready to use.

With the confidence of students and parents, IBII Accounting Program will continue to move forward into the dock of knowledge and the forging of character who are ready to remove the accounting graduates who are ready to face various challenges and faced a wave in the business world.

Accounting courses are at three concentrations, namely:

• Management Accounting
• Examination of Accounting (Auditing)
• Tax Accounting

Management
Students who choose the Management Studies Program will focus on choosing one of three concentrations offered, namely the Financial Management, Marketing Management, and Entrepreneurship in which each has a unique concentration of each.

Marketing Management, among others, to learn:

1. Understanding of marketing concepts and practices ranging from what is marketing.
2. Marketing mix for products and services (Product, Price, Promotion, Place, Process, Physical Evidents and People), which is studying various ways to market a product through the introduction of products, competitive pricing, proper use of media campaigns and determine the location strategically, deliver excellent services that can satisfy the customer to create loyal customers.
3. SWOT Analysis - Strengths, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat, which studied the situation or condition that is the strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats from the program or organization in the present and future.
4. Marketing strategy is a series of integrated actions towards sustainable competitive advantage.

Financial Management, among others, to learn:

Analysis, strategy and operations related to financial risk, investment analysis and understand the exciting opportunities the source of funds from capital markets in accordance with the conditions and investigation of national and international business portfolio. To complete the assessment process will be studied as well as knowledge and insight into the financial management required by the businesses according to their needs and will be used referral latest financial theories and actual cases of which can be developed into a research model business.

Entrepreneurship, among others, to learn:
How should an entrepreneurs in the attitude and behavior, how to innovate, foster creativity, and optimize existing factors from both inside and outside the business, thereby increasing productivity.

System Information (SI)
PS Information Systems began implementing learning process in September 2005. This study program organized with the aim to produce graduates who are highly competent as a business information systems analyst who supported IT.

The presence of PS IBII Information System to meet the desires of high school students in North Jakarta, East Jakarta, and Bekasi who intend to continue their studies of high-quality ICT, with campus locations are strategic, not too far from the domicile students.

In the teaching-learning process of students trained in the use of information and communication technology to produce useful information to support the company's management in tactical and strategic decisions.

Excellence Studies Program Information System:

• The ability of algorithms and programming-semester students are trained since the beginning of the semester by experienced lecturers with IBII site is supported by On-Line Judge System.
• The lecturers who are practitioners of IT consultants and IT developers to provide knowledge and practical skills in the field to students.
• Content of business subjects in the curriculum supported SI IBII experience over twenty years of business education.


Studies Program Information System IBII held two concentrations, namely:

• Database Technology
• Management Support System.

Information Technology (IT)
PS Engineering Informatics began implementing learning process in September 2005. This study program organized with the aim of providing higher education in the field of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) or Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and produce graduates with high competence.

PS Presence Information Engineering IBII satisfy high school students around North Jakarta, East Jakarta, and Bekasi who intend to continue their studies of high-quality ICT, with campus locations not too far from the domicile students.

A number of academics who have experienced a dozen years managing ICT learning and educating students have joined this course since its inception, and is committed to providing the best education. In addition, the learning process is also supported by the practitioners of ICT (IT consultants and IT developers).

Faculty of Electrical Engineering IBII held two concentrations, namely:

• Web Technology
• Software Engineering

Communication Studies (IlKom)
Students who choose the Science Communication Program Study will focus on choosing one of two concentrations are offered, namely Broadcasting and Marketing Communication, where each of these concentrations have their respective advantages.

The dynamics and scope of broadcasting (broadcasting) and integrated marketing communications (Integrated Marketing Communication), which is very intensive and extensive today requires a lot of reliable power.

IBII Communication Sciences Studies Program provides ample opportunity for those who want to develop themselves to be professionals in science communication.

Broadcasting, among others, to learn:
1. For Expertise Television: Mastering the skill to produce a television program or talk show, editing techniques, doing reporting and writing news scripts.
2. For Science: Understand the theory, concepts and communication perspective.
• Marketing Communication, among others, to learn:
Learn the steps in the Integrated Marketing Communication marketing, especially in terms of promotion through advertising ranging from research in the field, making the concept of advertising, to the realization of such a story board concepts and advertising copy. Ability to work in a particular event, applying the techniques of sales promotion, becoming a qualified public relations, direct marketing run by following the development of existing technology was also honed in Marketing Communication concentration.


Science in Business Administration (IAB)
• The curriculum is designed in accordance with the standard curriculum of business administration in foreign countries with reference to the national curriculum set by the government. To enrich the knowledge and simultaneously meet the needs of industry and business world are also added to the local curriculum.
• The educational program of science degree in business administration consists of 144 credits 135 credits of theory and practice of business, nine credits of internship (3SKS) and thesis (6 credits).
• Draft curriculum:

1. Concept and Theory of Knowledge: Organization and Management Business, political and social aspects in business, Business Ethics, Introduction to Business, Financial Accounting, Cost Accounting, Management Accounting, Marketing, Business Financial Management, Business Statistics, entrepreneurship. Corporate Budgeting, Economist, and Business Law.

2. Advanced and applied knowledge: Organizational behavior, Business Research Methods, Organizational Development, Business Development, System and Economic Policy and the Politics of Indonesia, Operations and Production Management, Strategic Management, Inventory Management and Logistics, International Financial Management, Investment Portfolio Management, Marketing Management, Human Resource Management, Industry and Competition Analysis, Project Management, Risk Management, Financial Statement Analysis, and Capital Markets Analysis.

3. Understanding Computers and Languages: Mandarin, English, Computer Business, and Business Information Systems.

4. Understanding of policy and strategy: Policy and business financial strategies, policies and strategies and production operations, policies and marketing strategies, policies and strategies for business development, and human resources policies and strategies.

5. Understanding of business practices: Project-business projects as well as individual or group internship program (internship)

6. Final Project: Project Business Plan (Business Plan). Students are expected to produce a business plan ready to run with the loading aspect of production, operations, finance, marketing and human resources.


Masters in Management
IBII Management Master Program (PSMM-IBII) is a high-level education program S-2 which is intended for young managers and aspiring managers who want to excel in today's career and preparing for future challenges.
General Purpose Program
• Developing yourself to succeed in a career as a manager who berkewirausahaan (enterpreneurial manager)
• Improving the capacity to learn for the future is a complex and dynamic, especially in the business environment

Participants will gain self-development facility into a berkewirausahaan manager. Berkewirausahaan managers are expected to identify opportunities for renewal, be brave to face the risk of introducing reform and renewal skilled in the work environment. Berkewirausahaan managers are managers who are able to innovate.

PSMM-IBII accreditation ratings are based on the decisions of A BAN-PT No. 013/BAN-PT/AK-IV/S2XII/2005 (effective December 27, 2005 s / d in 2010). PSMM-IBII obtain international certificates: ISO 9001:2000 Quality Management System of SUCOFINDO SERVICES INTERNATIONAL on June 12, 2005.

Curriculum and Course PSMM-IBII offers two concentrations, namely the Financial Management and Marketing Management with the curriculum up-to-date, reviewed periodically by involving a variety of relevant sources in order to follow the progress of science and technology and the demands of the business world. Study load for each concentration is 42 credits credits programmed in four semesters (effective 18 months). Lectures held at night, at 6:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m., Monday through Friday between.

Quality Programs Degrees M.M. (Magister Management) with a concentration in Financial Management, or Marketing Management can be achieved through consistent and continuous process which is supported by the program that has the following qualities:

• Board of academics and lecturers teaching Business practitioners who have the competence, experience, commitment and a high reputation in their respective fields. Lecturer Doctoral degrees IBII academics from a lecturer, so easily found outside the classrooms. Lecturer practitioner who holds a Doctorate and Master's executives and consultants who are still active in the business world.
• follow the development of curriculum demands "hard and soft managerial skills" and "berkewirausahaan" from the business world, to the level of professional managers as well as business travelers.
• a conducive academic atmosphere (professional-collegial) through the learning process and supervision that is consistent and friendly.
• Teaching methods are balancing concepts and applications (case-studies, field studies, projects, seminars, problem solving).
• Options to suit the work end with the preferences and interests of students / participants (problem solving, business plans, feasibility studies, strategic plan, theses). Participants can unite the interests of study tasks with duties at the company.
• Access to all facilities and infrastructure within the Indonesian Institute of Business and Informatics.
• Having a national accreditation with a rating of "A" (BAN-PT RI) since 2000.
• Obtaining international certifications in Quality Management System "ISO 9001:2000" (SUCOFINDO INTERNATIONAL) since 2001.

Master of Accounting
Master of Accounting IBII (MAKSI-IBII) is the Tier-2 education program in Accounting is designed to provide in-depth and comprehensive provisions regarding science and practice of accounting. Unlike programs offered by other universities, study programs IBII degree in Accounting is designed with attention to factors of efficiency, information management and various stakeholders' interests to have two concentrations:

• Internal Accounting Services: Focusing on the activities of accountants as members of the management team in a company
• External Accounting Services: Focusing on the activities of accountants as consultants (management, taxes, etc.) and public accountants

Master of Accounting IBII course requires students to complete as many as 39 credits / four semesters.

For prospective students who are not from the S-1 Accounting Studies Program, are required to follow the matriculation.

Matriculation Subject:
• Economy
• Financial Accounting
• Management Accounting
• Accounting Investigation

Curriculum The program curriculum was designed by combining aspects of accounting practices and conceptual knowledge in accordance with the latest developments and taking into account the need for knowledge in accordance with the accounting profession is doing.

Doctoral Studies Program (S3)
Management Science
Doctoral Program Management Science IBII well designed (well-Designed) to produce doctoral MANAGEMENT SCIENCE. Doctor who was able to develop concepts in the areas of organization, management, leadership, strategy and entrepreneurship, and be able to translate it into applied research and managerial solutions to address challenges of the future competitive landscape of the complex.

Concentration Management Science Doctoral Program offers four concentrations that are considered appropriate for future roles in Indonesia and internationally. The four concentrations are:

• Financial Management (Financial Management)
• Marketing Management (Marketing Management)
• Strategic Management (Strategic Management)
• Management Accounting (Accounting Management)

Lecture time:
• Friday Pk. 15:00 - Pk. 21:00
• Saturday Pk. 09:00 - Pk. 15:00

Doctoral Program Curriculum Management Science IBII aimed at encouraging the learning process continues from the participants of the program, develop the talents and the weight of scientific principals and educators of the business world, and ensure the achievement of high competence of graduates. For those who worked extra hard and discipline, the doctoral program can be completed within two and a half years. SKS total weight is 64 credits.

Matriculation Subject:
• Economy
• Management & Organization
• Marketing & Entrepreneurship
• Accounting

Professional Program
Accounting Profession (PPAK)
Nowadays more and more accounting profession has a broad impact on all aspects of the nation's economy. Therefore, an accountant is expected to have competence in the field of adequate accounting and high commitment to live a profession.

Based on Decree (Decree) No. Mendiknas. 179/U/2001, professional designation of Accountants (Ak) can be obtained through the Accounting Profession (PPAK). Accountant designation previously given only to graduates of the S-1 Accounting from certain universities or for those who have passed the State Examination in Accounting (Una). Accountant designation is specifically a requirement for Public Accounting Certification Examination (Smear).

Institute of Business and Information Technology of Indonesia through the Accounting Profession Program (PPAK-IBII) invites you to explore the practice and theory of accounting in Indonesia. With a blend of faculty members who come from internal as well as practitioners in the field, then-IBII PPAK participants are expected to master the concepts, apply these concepts and understand its application. Graduates PPAK-IBII directed to have the competence and high commitment in running the accounting profession.

Methods Course Lectures will be held with the method:
• Course theory
Form of assessment and control theory
• Course the case
Form of resolution to problems related to the concept and theory
• Course practice
Application of theory in the form of accounting practices in Indonesia
• Completion task
Form of writing papers, presentations, individual / group, the study of literature and case studies